https://waterpigs.co.uk/services/microformats-to-atom/?url=https%3A//newbedfordlight.org/trump-could-cut-or-weaken-incentives-for-green-energy/ Adam Goldstein https://newbedfordlight.org/author/adam-goldstein/ https://newbedfordlight.org/2024-in-review-right-turn-in-bristol-county-trump-gets-48-senate-district-goes-republican/ 2024 in review: Right turn in Bristol County; Trump gets 48%,… 2024-12-31T15:41:41-05:00 2024-12-31T15:41:41-05:00
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Ahead of the election, local and national clean energy authorities said the Inflation Reduction Act — the largest climate investment in the nation’s history — would be safe from significant changes in the event of a Trump presidency.

They said rescinding grant awards from the Biden administration’s landmark climate law would be legally difficult. They said bipartisan support in Congress would keep its tax incentives intact.

Now, those beliefs will be tested.

Republican Donald Trump won the presidential election last Tuesday. Republicans also won enough Congressional races to control the Senate. They are also likely to win the House of Representatives. Both Trump and Republican Party leadership have shown interest in reshaping the Inflation Reduction Act.

Local clean energy minds say they are disappointed with the election results, but not shocked. They stand by their belief in the overall durability of the Inflation Reduction Act. Still, they say these shifts in power may embolden Trump to attempt to rescind its grant funds or tax credits.

“It is an outcome that was certainly possible,” said Alliance for Climate Transition president Joe Curtatone. “It’d be difficult to try to go back on a lot of the IRA, but that doesn’t mean he won’t try.”

The Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in 2022, makes an estimated $391 billion available in grants, tax incentives, direct spending and loans for clean energy and climate-related projects. It will likely be worth more, as many of the clean energy tax credits in the law are uncapped.

During the presidential campaign, Trump called the Inflation Reduction Act part of a “Green New Scam,” increasing energy costs and hurting American energy independence. If elected, he pledged to “rescind all unspent dollars” from the law.

Project 2025 — a Heritage Foundation blueprint for the next conservative presidency — also calls for a repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act and its renewable energy subsidies.

Local clean energy minds remain relatively confident that many parts of the Inflation Reduction Act will be difficult for a Trump administration to repeal or rescind, even with a Republican Congress. That includes the grant awards.

The law appropriated an estimated $100 billion in grants for climate and clean energy projects.

The Biden administration has awarded upwards of $60 billion in climate and clean energy grant funds through the law so far, according to an Atlas Public Policy report.

More than $1.3 billion in Inflation Reduction Act grant money has gone to projects in Massachusetts, according to the Climate Program Portal. That’s the most money any New England state has seen from the law. Many of those dollars will go to programs aiming to boost heat pump and solar panel adoption on the South Coast.

A Columbia University study found that attempts to rescind these funds would likely face successful challenges in court.

“I think those dollars are probably safe,” said Kelt Wilska, the offshore wind director for the Environmental League of Massachusetts.

Still, a few local clean energy authorities are growing more concerned about potential post-election changes to the law’s tax incentives. They are worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Those help grow the state’s clean energy industry, and enable large-scale renewable energy procurements.

A Trump administration may feel more emboldened to pursue them with a Republican-controlled Congress, these experts said.

Wilska said the election results likely mean Republicans will attempt to change tax credits for the offshore wind industry. That could create uncertainty for banks and investors, and jeopardize future offshore wind projects that could benefit communities like New Bedford and Somerset.

Trump and his allies will also likely try to cut solar energy tax credits, Curtatone of Alliance for Climate Transition said.

They may also try to change tax credit rules to benefit the fossil fuel industry, or even try to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act entirely.

However, these authorities take comfort that there will still be limits on what a unified Republican government could actually accomplish.

Repealing or changing clean energy tax credits — or any major part of the Inflation Reduction Act — will require an act of Congress.

That will be a time-consuming challenge without filibuster-proof majorities, Curtatone said. The Republicans will not have a filibuster-proof majority in either chamber of Congress.

Barbara Kates-Garnick, a clean energy policy professor in the Fletcher School at Tufts University, expects the incoming Trump administration to try to tweak Inflation Reduction Act tax credits in collaboration with a Republican Congress.

Yet many of their constituents and financial backers are benefitting from these tax credits. So “it’s not a clear picture at this moment” as to what would be changed.

She added the carbon sequestration and hydrogen tax credits — which are supported by the fossil fuel industry — would likely go untouched.

The tax policy in the law is driving clean energy investments in underserved communities across the country, said Zach Friedman, director of federal policy at Ceres. There is bipartisan support for the law in Congress, which he does not expect to stop — even with new members coming in.

So while the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits are “going to be a discussion” with a unified Republican federal government, Friedman expects the policy will remain consistent.

Even with these institutional checks, Trump could still try to use executive authority to change the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits on his own, Curtatone said.

“We take Trump at face value of what he has said he was going to do,” Curtatone explained. “Now is the time to double down on our vigilance, to be vocal, to be active, to be informed.”

Correction: This story was amended on Nov. 11, 2024, to correct one of the figures for Inflation Reduction Act spending. The law appropriated an estimated $100 billion (not $100 million) in grants for climate and clean energy projects.

Email environmental reporter Adam Goldstein at agoldstein@newbedfordlight.org.

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